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COVID-19 Second Wave In India To Peak In Mid-May, Warns IIT Scientists

April 24, 2021

The COVID-19 second wave, which has hit India severely, may peak between May 11-15 with 33-35 lakh total 'active'' cases and decline steeply by the end of May.

The claim was made according to a mathematical module devised by the scientists at the Indian Institute of Technology.

It may be mentioned here that every day India is creating new records in the number of daily cases and on April 23, the country witnessed a single-day rise of 3,32,730 (3.32 lakh) COVID-19 infections and 2,263 fatalities with 24,28,616 (24.28 lakh) active cases.

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The number of daily cases is the biggest-ever single-day surge in the world since the pandemic began.

In predicting that the active cases would go up by about 10 lakh by mid-May before sliding, scientists from IIT Kanpur and Hyderabad applied the 'Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and Removed Approach'' (SUTRA) model.

The scientists also said Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan and Telangana may see a high of new cases by April 25-30, while Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh might already have reached their peak in new cases.

Speaking to the media Manindra Agrawal, a professor at the Department of Computer Science and Engineering, IIT-Kanpur said that their calculations have found that there is a reasonable chance that the active cases in the country could peak between May 11-15 with 33-35 lakh cases.

He further said that like its sharp increase, the cases would come down dramatically towards the end of May as well.

The scientists further said that there are several novel features in the SUTRA model.

"Whereas previous papers divided the patient population into asymptomatic and infected, the new model also accounts for the fact that some fraction of asymptomatic patients could also be detected due to contact tracing and other such protocols," reported NDTV.

It may be mentioned here that the mathematical modelling approach predicted that active infections in India country would peak by April 15, however, this didn't come true.

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